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TRUE WORTH STUDIES
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College Football Championship Games
True Worth takes a look at the BCS Championship.
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BCS Championship Game 2012 | BCS Championship Game 2011
BCS Championship Game 2010 | BCS Championship Game 2009
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BCS Championship Game 2012
True Worth says Alabama is Favorite (+1) This game pits two of the best defenses in the country against powerhouse offenses, and it is a very close game indeed. Alabama is a 1 point favorite because of the strong running game, the exceptional defense, and the fact that it wins matchups in several categories. For LSU to win this game it must be able to go up against Alabama's pass defense. Alabama's biggest concern, obviously, is the LSU passing attack. The result of the grades calculation is not about points (13.55 v. 10.86), but this shows the strength of Alabama's overall offense, even against a tough defense like LSU. |
Championship Game Results
Alabama 21, LSU 0
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Alabama (Actual Performance) 36.35 YP - 1.041 rPD - 54.55 S% -66.44 DU - -4.73 rDU - -61.71 pDU YIELD --> -5.86 YP 35.733 PASS - 4.286 RUSH |
LSU (Actual Performance) 0.00 YP - 0.000 rPD - 0.00 S% 414.87 DU - 288.57 rDU - 126.29 pDU YIELD --> 36.61 YP 3.702 PASS - 0.376 RUSH |
| Alabama played a complete game. The defensive results from the game are "negative," and this great triple negative defensive output went with a strong offensive showing. LSU can take some respect from giving up 5 field goals instead of touchdowns. Alabama's biggest concern was the passing attack, but that was shut down well. To top it off, the special teams also had an outstanding evening. |
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BCS Championship Game 2011
True Worth says Oregon is Favorite (+4) The above calculation is not about points or yards, but do not let the higher numbers fool you. At that high level of offense, the spread between the numbers is not the same as the same spread at a lower level. Oregon will be the favorite based mainly on the defense and the fact it can match Auburn on the ground attack. Auburn must run against Oregon to win, because that is the weaker portion of the Oregon defense, and if it can succeed against a very good A-Grade Oregon pass defense, then that will be a key aspect of the game. Oregon should attack Auburn's pass defense, but it should not waist its own running attack to spite itself. |
Championship Game Results
Auburn 22, Oregon 19
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Auburn (Actual Performance) 24.03 YP - 0.556 rPD - 33.33 S% 257.57 DU - 35.16 rDU - 223.41 pDU YIELD --> 22.82 YP 48.803 PASS - 8.602 RUSH |
Oregon (Actual Performance) 19.23 YP - 0.471 rPD - 27.27 S% 361.49 DU - 242.06 rDU - 119.43 pDU YIELD --> 31.90 YP 40.445 PASS - 1.172 RUSH |
| Both teams came into the game as 10.000 Team Rushing, and as you can see Auburn shut down the Oregon running game completely. That was the key to Auburn's victory. Both teams did not pass as well as they did during the course of the regular season, but both teams passed adequately, above 40% effectiveness. So, there is no doubt that the Auburn rush defense of 35.16 rDU deserves all the credit in the world for stopping a powerful running game. Oregon's pass defense, however, did not stop the pass as they had during the season, 119.43 pDU in the game versus 39.88 pDU during the season. |
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BCS Championship Game 2010
True Worth says No Favorite (-) The above calculation is not about points or yards. The 2.22 YP difference is a dead heat in True Worth. You'd like to give Texas plus 1 point for the higher rPD while having the lower YP. But, the Team Rushing of Alabama is worth 7.341 units and enough to offset this. This is truly an even game, with the biggest risk at special teams, where neither team can cover well. It is the only weakness either team has. |
Championship Game Results
Alabama 37, Texas 21
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Alabama (Actual Performance) 9.95 YP - 0.605 rPD - 31.25 S% 13.79 DU - 14.86 rDU - -1.07 pDU YIELD --> 1.22 YP 6.168 PASS - 5.493 RUSH |
Texas (Actual Performance) 4.72 YP - 0.291 rPD - 23.53 S% 129.80 DU - 212.80 rDU - -83.00 pDU YIELD --> 11.45 YP 22.719 PASS - 1.562 RUSH |
| Both teams played very good defense against powerful offenses, and the results show that both offenses were slowed. Alabama's win with only 9.95 YP generated for the game is a strong statement for the Texas defense, but Texas managed only 4.72 YP, making the Alabama defensive effort outstanding at 13.79 DU. In the end, Alabama's rushing was too much to overcome, and that was the key to victory. Both teams played pass defense so well that "negative" results were the product. While the score of 37 to 21 might indicate to the uninitiated that this was an offensive game, that would be an error. If both offenses were "cooking," the results would have made the defensive grades much worse. Alabama's 7.341 RUSH grade for the season was lowered in this game to 5.493 --- which is one more indication that Alabama may be the best rushing team in the nation, since not even a good defensive effort can really stop them completely. |
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BCS Championship Game 2009
True Worth says Florida is Favorite (+9)
Oklahoma had to run the ball to win, and it did not, falling below its seasonal grade. The Oklahoma offense did, however, make its YP (10.16 v. the 9.36 YIELD), and so the Oklahoma passing kept it in the ball game. The 34.078 Oklahoma passing was better than it might have been against the Florida pass defense. The Oklahoma defense, along with ineffective Oklahoma rushing, cost Oklahoma the game. Florida made their YP also (63.21 v. the 35.34 YIELD), and their rushing was almost the same as it was all season. Although their defense ballooned slightly in the Championship, it was still "A-Grade" at 106.04 DU. Finally, Florida had made the True Worth Profile on all counts, and Oklahoma had not, missing on "Defense." Therefore, Oklahoma could never be ranked ahead of Florida in this context --- although the Oklahoma offense was outstanding and actually better overall than Florida for the season, with a higher YP. This is one main reason a single number can never be used to rank Florida or Oklahoma. One's offense is better, and the other's defense is better. |
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