Mr. J.V. Presogna
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 Introduction to True Worth Studies |
 GameDayPro_3X Software |
College Football
True Worth takes a look at the BCS Championship.
BCS Championship Game 2010 | BCS Championship Game 2009 | Playoff Scenarios
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True Worth Studies was begun in 1985 to examine athletic performance. For the
most part, it has been mostly about the National Football League and professional
sports. The principles can, however, be applied everywhere, from high school to
college. True Worth Studies state explicitly that "no single number or grade" can identify a football team. In other words, although you can rank or grade the components of any team --- like pass offense, or rush defense, or special teams --- you can never find a single number to rank a team "as a whole." This is because the sport is about matchups. The BCS Championship does little to take this into consideration, and the BCS rankings do provide a single number for a team to be ranked --- contrary to True Worth principles. In 1991, I personally contacted the NCAA concerning NCAA football and a possible championship series. I received a reply from Dennis L. Poppe, Director of Championships, dated November 27, 1991, thanking me for the interest, but implying that the NCAA had other plans at the time. Said Mr. Poppe, "A resolution was presented during the 1988 Convention that stated Division I-A membership did not support the creation of a national championship in the sport of football. The resolution passed by a vote of 98 in favor, 13 opposed and one abstention. However, as mentioned, no proposal with a suggested format has even been presented for consideration." No playoff series was intended for the NCAA football teams, and this eventually gave way to the current BCS Championship. I did, in my contact with Mr. Poppe, provide 2 possible playoff formats, both of which could have used the bowl system already in place in a fair playoff of what could be termed the best college football teams. I will issue both of those plans again here on this page, and I will also use True Worth Studies to examine the BCS Championship Game to let you see how a single college game plays out. |
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BCS Championship Game 2010
True Worth says No Favorite (-) The above calculation is not about points or yards. The 2.22 YP difference is a dead heat in True Worth. You'd like to give Texas plus 1 point for the higher rPD while having the lower YP. But, the Team Rushing of Alabama is worth 7.341 units and enough to offset this. This is truly an even game, with the biggest risk at special teams, where neither team can cover well. It is the only weakness either team has. |
Championship Game Results
Alabama 37, Texas 21
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Alabama (Actual Performance) 9.95 YP - 0.605 rPD - 31.25 S% 13.79 DU - 14.86 rDU - -1.07 pDU YIELD --> 1.22 YP 6.168 PASS 5.493 RUSH |
Texas (Actual Performance) 4.72 YP - 0.291 rPD - 23.53 S% 129.80 DU - 212.80 rDU - -83.00 pDU YIELD --> 11.45 YP 22.719 PASS - 1.562 RUSH |
| Both teams played very good defense against powerful offenses, and the results show that both offenses were slowed. Alabama's win with only 9.95 YP generated for the game is a strong statement for the Texas defense, but Texas managed only 4.72 YP, making the Alabama defensive effort outstanding at 13.79 DU. In the end, Alabama's rushing was too much to overcome, and that was the key to victory. Both teams played pass defense so well that "negative" results were the product. While the score of 37 to 21 might indicate to the uninitiated that this was an offensive game, that would be an error. If both offenses were "cooking," the results would have made the defensive grades much worse. Alabama's 7.341 RUSH grade for the season was lowered in this game to 5.493 --- which is one more indication that Alabama may be the best rushing team in the nation, since not even a good defensive effort can really stop them completely. |
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BCS Championship Game 2009
True Worth says Florida is Favorite (+9)
Oklahoma had to run the ball to win, and it did not, falling below its seasonal grade. The Oklahoma offense did, however, make its YP (10.16 v. the 9.36 YIELD), and so the Oklahoma passing kept it in the ball game. The 34.078 Oklahoma passing was better than it might have been against the Florida pass defense. The Oklahoma defense, along with ineffective Oklahoma rushing, cost Oklahoma the game. Florida made their YP also (63.21 v. the 35.34 YIELD), and their rushing was almost the same as it was all season. Although their defense ballooned slightly in the Championship, it was still "A-Grade" at 106.04 DU. Finally, Florida had made the True Worth Profile on all counts, and Oklahoma had not, missing on "Defense." Therefore, Oklahoma could never be ranked ahead of Florida in this context --- although the Oklahoma offense was outstanding and actually better overall than Florida for the season, with a higher YP. This is one main reason a single number can never be used to rank Florida or Oklahoma. One's offense is better, and the other's defense is better. Therefore, because of these principles, a playoff system was proposed in 1991 to the NCAA by me, as discussed below. |
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Two NCAA Playoff Scenarios
Back to the Top
These are the 2 playoff scenarios proposed by me November 20, 1991.
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16 Teams 8 Bowls scheduled prior to New Year's Day on 2 separate days of the same weekend. 8 Teams survive to play in 4 New Year's Day Bowls (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton). Rose winner v. Cotton winner. Orange winner v. Sugar winner. Championship Game and Consolation Game on same weekend. |
10 Teams After one weekend of playoffs, 5 teams remain. A poll will rank the 5 remaining teams, and #1 gets a "Bye Week." #2 plays #5, and #3 plays #4. Winners of each game above play for the top seed. That winner plays the #1 (who had the bye) for the Championship. |
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