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2022 NCAA BCS Championship Playoff for the 2021 Season

Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2022 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.

YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up

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Playoff Teams


YP
rPD
S%
DU
rDU
pDU
Pass
Rush
Yield
Alabama
87.75
1.989
56.16
182.14
82.03
100.11
63.414
3.993
16.07
Cincinnati
56.67
1.555
48.37
125.16
87.97
37.13
60.526
6.437
11.04
Michigan
71.61
1.792
55.10
179.59
88.00
91.59
53.690
7.924
15.85
Georgia
72.20
1.819
54.48
106.46
36.81
69.65
55.338
6.860
9.39



Discussion

This is the 8th year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up as follows: Alabama will meet Cincinnati and Michigan will face Georgia.

ALABAMA v. CINCINNATI: Toss Up, No Favorite
The strength calculation to start the game is 64.60 YP for Alabama and 60.72 YP for Cincinnati. This is a very close beginning before the kickoff. Going through all of the matchups in each column, you will find that Alabama gains points on the rPD, but loses on the splits in passing and rushing. Indeed, this game is a very close game, with Alabama providing more scoring punch, but Cincinnati providing more ball control. The Cincinnati defense has an edge, especially on pass defense, and this is where they will be tested, and where the game may be won. Both teams are capable of throwing the ball, but Cincinnati clearly defends against the pass better. For Alabama to win, not only must the passing game keep up with its season performance, but the running game must give some support. For Cincinnati, while they are a difficult running team to stop, they too must pass the ball, exploiting the real advantage they have, since Alabama's pass defense is weaker.
Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6 (on 12/31/2021)

MICHIGAN v. GEORGIA: Georgia +3 Favorite
The calculation to start the game is 44.84 YP for Michigan and 76.20 YP for Georgia. While this may seem to give a significant edge to Georgia, the Michigan offense is comparable in how it has operated during the season. Essentially, both teams are fairly equal on offense, but Georgia has a clear edge on the defensive front, which makes them the favorite. Because of this, Michigan's best bet is to play a patient game and use their offensive strength to control the tempo and keep the ball away from Georgia. For Georgia, since the real advantage they have is a superior defense, Georgia would probably gain by attacking Michigan's defense, maybe evn coming out throwing, trying to take the running game away from Michigan.
Georgia 34, Michigan 11 (on 12/31/2021)

Championship Game
ALABAMA v. GEORGIA: Georgia +1 Favorite
The opening calculation for strength shows Georgia at 77.36 YP and Alabama at 54.95 YP. This is one team's offense against the other team's defense, and basically what each team would be if they played each other every game. This happens because of Georgia's AAA-Defense. Both teams have rPD rates which are high and almost the same, so they can both score well from anywhere on the field. Once again, Alabama will be facing a good pass defense as with Cincinnati, so their running game becomes important again also. With Georgia, their game plan should include attacking the pass defense of Alabama, maybe setting up the run with the pass. Both teams need to give run support, but the running game is more important to Alabama, since they would like to control the tempo of this game. Additionally, Alabama must slow down Georgia on the ground, but this means first having to curtail Georgia's passing game. This makes Georgia a very slight one point favorite.
Georgia 33, Alabama 18 (on 1/10/2022)
Georgia is the new NCAA Football Champion



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