Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2023 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
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YP rPD S% DU rDU pDU Pass Rush Yield |
Georgia 102.82 2.235 61.15 150.87 43.89 106.98 59.399 7.625 13.31 |
Michigan 90.97 2.176 60.99 134.54 52.16 82.37 61.686 9.139 11.87 |
TCU 64.35 1.643 51.59 235.94 139.76 96.18 64.217 6.975 20.82 |
Ohio State 82.05 2.012 56.55 140.65 81.98 58.67 73.021 7.263 12.41 |
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This is the 9th year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Georgia will meet Ohio State and Michigan will face TCU. GEORGIA v. OHIO STATE: Georgia +2 Favorite The strength calculation at the start of the game is Georgia 85.07 YP and Ohio State 72.82 YP, so both teams drop a little at the opening kickoff. With both teams dropping at kickoff, the scoring should be somewhat subdued, instead of the usual higher score dictated by the rPD. While both teams run at about the same rate, Georgia has the defensive edge. Yet, on passing, the edge goes to Ohio State by a good margin. Georgia is definitely vulnerable against the best passing in the playoffs, because at that rate they are barely holding their own. This is the key to the game, how well Georgia can handle the Ohio State passing game. They certainly can handle the Ohio State running game. As for the other side of the coin, Ohio State must pass to win, because Georgia will try to control the tempo and keep Ohio State from having the ball. This is where Georgia gets its status as favorite. Georgia should be able to run the ball and control the tempo. Should Ohio State open things up, their passing is the key to victory for them. Georgia 42, Ohio State 41 (on 12/31/2022) MICHIGAN v. TCU: Michigan +5 Favorite The calculation to start the game is Michigan 126.26 YP and TCU 50.93 YP, showing a fairly good jump for Michigan on offense. Michigan should take the running game both ways, if everyone shows up, giving them a clear edge. TCU will have a difficult time stopping the Michigan running game, while Michigan has a clear advantage. This means TCU will have to pass to set up any running game, and they would probably benefit by coming out throwing. Michigan is in a situation where their offense rises and TCU's offense gets dropped a few points. It shows that Michigan can probably score without a great deal of effort. TCU, however, can counter this by using their passing game for short bursts, while still looking downfield, because they will most likely have trouble running the ball. A dominant Michigan running game should set the tempo. TCU 51, Michigan 45 (on 12/31/2022) Championship Game GEORGIA v. TCU: Georgia +5 Favorite The calculation to start the game is Georgia 142.70 YP and TCU 57.11 YP. What looks like a mismatch after the calculation is not as great as it seems when the splits are viewed in comparison. The real difference is that Georgia gets a lot more bang for the buck than TCU. That is the rPD factor, which takes into account big plays, such as TDs, FGs, 3rd downs, 4th downs, and plays longer than 17-20 yards. In other words, Georgia tends to score and keep their drives going most of the time. TCU, however, does have the edge in passing, both on offense and defense. The real difference is in the ground game, where Georgia is superior on defense, while also running at a very good rate. It is that A-Grade rush defense that propels Georgia. TCU's rush defense, on the other hand, is not good, so the overall strategy comes out quickly. For TCU to win, it will have to pass the ball well, and take advantage of every opportunity with field position. While on defense, TCU should probably play read and react on the rush, not giving up big plays on the ground. In other words, they will give up yards, but not big plays and scores. For Georgia, who has the superior rush defense, the answer is to shut down or curtail the TCU running game, and try to hold on with pass defense against a good passing team. This makes TCU a 5 point underdog two games in a row, but they have already beaten Michigan to get here. It could be another high scoring game, but Georgia would prefer a lower score for TCU in the end. Georgia 65, TCU 7 (on 1/9/2023) Georgia is the new NCAA Football Champion |