Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2024 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
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YP rPD S% DU rDU pDU Pass Rush Yield |
Michigan 77.38 1.986 56.69 60.34 43.56 16.78 60.908 4.600 5.32 |
Alabama 56.76 1.556 51.05 155.57 99.45 56.12 57.744 4.990 13.73 |
Washington 82.13 1.845 54.01 267.42 131.26 136.16 58.179 3.775 23.60 |
Texas 66.85 1.588 53.06 141.50 43.97 97.53 56.232 6.209 12.49 |
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This is the 10th year of the NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Michigan will meet Alabama and Washington will face Texas. MICHIGAN v. ALABAMA: Michigan is +4 Favorite The strength calculation at the start of the game is 70.81 YP for Michigan and 20.15 YP for Alabama. This is the result of Michigan's superior overall defense. Although both teams run the ball at about the same rate of performance, it will be difficult for Alabama to run as well against Michigan. The problem, however, is the Michigan pass defense, which is by far the best of the playoff teams. It is difficult to see a high scoring game here, because Alabama's pass defense is also very good. It would appear that both teams need to run the ball and take what the defense gives them on the pass. You might see a trick play or some new wrinkle to break the defensive stranglehold on this game. Michigan's rPD is very high, which means they get a lot of bang for their buck, so it is imperative that Alabama not let the scoring get out of hand or too high. Michigan would be wise to run the ball on an Alabama rush defense which would be considered a little soft, but look downfield for an opening, if possible. Michigan 27, Alabama 20 OT (on 1/1/2024) WASHINGTON v. TEXAS: Texas is +2 Favorite The calculation to start the game is 68.35 YP for Washington and 105.15 YP for Texas. There is no doubt that Washington is an offensive team with a defensive performance of 267.42 DU, the worst of the playoff teams. Texas is similar to Alabama on defense, although Texas is soft against the pass and much better against the rush. Washington wins games by outscoring them, but they will be forced to play some defense against Texas, because the pre-game calculation is a rather large strength difference, despite Washington having the higher rPD. In other words, Texas should definitely attack that Washington defense and make it work. Washington, on the other hand, would like to keep their defense off the field and play a patient game of ball control, knowing that defense is their liability. They have the highest YP score of the playoff teams, which means quite clearly that they move the ball exceptionally well against other defenses. Better to have a 10 play drive and use the clock, and let the Texas offense rest and cool off on the sidelines. For Texas, the attitude would be the opposite, because they should indeed attack a defense which is above 130.00 DU on both counts. Washington 37, Texas 31 (on 1/1/2024) Championship Game MICHIGAN v. WASHINGTON: Michigan is +5 Favorite The strength calculation to start the game is 121.72 YP for Michigan and 29.15 YP for Washington. There is no doubt that Michigan is a much stronger team, but this is not a score, or amount of yards, or some calculation of opportunity. It is, however, a very large difference, primarily because of the Washington defense which is well above 100.00 DU on both rushing and passing defense. By contrast, Washington's offensive output is a higher YP grade than Michigan's output (82.13 YP v 77.38 YP on the season). While both teams are very good at passing, Michigan's pass defense will be a problem for Washington unless they can run the ball well. While Michigan's rush defense is very good, it is the weaker portion of the defense and it must be exploited by Washington to have success. Otherwise the pressure will be on Washington's passing offense to beat the superior pass defense of Michigan. Anything below 70.00 pDU is A-Grade pass defense, so you can see how good Michigan really is. The one thing that may matter here in this particular matchup is the rPD comparison, where both teams are very good. This is a relation of big plays, and both teams make big plays. The rPD reflects TDs, FGs, 3rd downs, 4th downs, and plays of sizeable yardage. Washington must make the big plays in order to win this game, to keep their drives going, and to salvage a FG when a TD is not possible. In essence, if Michigan can limit those big plays, they will be in control of the game with their defense, and their offense can attack a weaker defense in Washington. Michigan 34, Washington 13 (on 1/8/2024) Michigan is the new NCAA Football Champion |