Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2025 NCAA BCS Playoff.
Beginning this year, True Worth will post only the Championship Game.
The charts below represent the teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
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YP rPD S% DU rDU pDU Pass Rush Yield |
Notre Dame 59.38 1.583 50.00 107.92 92.40 15.52 52.337 8.193 9.52 |
Ohio State 70.94 1.689 50.98 72.96 47.08 25.89 67.035 5.402 6.44 |
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This is the 1st year of the new NCAA 12-Team BCS Playoff Series. The charts are based on
all games played to this point. Notre Dame is 14-1 and the charts reflect that
15 game stretch. Ohio State is 13-2 and the charts likewise reflect that stretch
of 15 games. Football is all about matchups, not win-loss records or rankings. The discussion below reviews the two teams as they stand against each other, based on the True Worth charts above. Championship Game - January 20, 2025 NOTRE DAME v. OHIO STATE: Ohio State is +2 Favorite The strength calculation for Notre Dame is 24.48 YP to start the game. For Ohio State, it is 45.03 YP. This is basically what each team would produce if they played each other all year long. Both teams are reduced somewhat because of their excellent defenses, and you would expect that defense would have an impact on this game. Notre Dame is outstanding on pass defense, which is exactly what they need against Ohio State's exceptional passing, but they are a little soft on rush defense. Ohio State is more balanced on defense, against the rush and the pass, but their own running game is not a good match for Notre Dame's running game. The challenge is for Ohio State to execute in their passing attack, since that is their very definite advantage, but they face a very formidable pass defense. For Notre Dame, they must run the ball to win, as you can see they have a distinct and impressive running game that is much better than Ohio State's running game. This is most likely the advantage that Notre Dame should exploit, but this is where the coaching comes into play. How much effort should Ohio State put into stopping Notre Dame on the ground, without neglecting their own pass defense? As for Notre Dame, pass defense is their forte, and they must indeed prevent Ohio State from gaining a lot of ground through the air. This can be done in several ways, including the blitz and coverage, but it all comes down to each team using their strengths. Both teams score very well, as the rPD grades demonstrate, so the focus is really on the defense. Ohio State must stop the run. Notre Dame must stop the pass. Ohio State 34, Notre Dame 23 (on 1/20/2025) Ohio State is the new NCAA Football Champion |